2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
Abstract. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct a...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.78.8874 2023-05-15T13:36:50+02:00 2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system Klaus Keller Matt Hall Seung-rae Kim David F. Bradford M. Oppenheimer The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2005 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.78.8874 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_et_al_cc_05.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.78.8874 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_et_al_cc_05.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_et_al_cc_05.pdf text 2005 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T19:13:08Z Abstract. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run. 1. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Unknown Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
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Abstract. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run. 1. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Klaus Keller Matt Hall Seung-rae Kim David F. Bradford M. Oppenheimer |
spellingShingle |
Klaus Keller Matt Hall Seung-rae Kim David F. Bradford M. Oppenheimer 2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system |
author_facet |
Klaus Keller Matt Hall Seung-rae Kim David F. Bradford M. Oppenheimer |
author_sort |
Klaus Keller |
title |
2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system |
title_short |
2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system |
title_full |
2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system |
title_fullStr |
2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system |
title_full_unstemmed |
2005: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system |
title_sort |
2005: avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.78.8874 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_et_al_cc_05.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_et_al_cc_05.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.78.8874 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_et_al_cc_05.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766084747625234432 |