Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic
Abstract We analyze the ability of an oceanic monitoring array to detect potential changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The observing array is ‘deployed’ into a numerical model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), and simulates the measurements of density and wind stress at 26 ◦ N in...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.77.8055 2023-05-15T17:34:43+02:00 Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic Johanna Baehr Klaus Keller Jochem Marotzke J. Baehr J. Marotzke The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2005 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.77.8055 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/baehr_etal_cc_07.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.77.8055 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/baehr_etal_cc_07.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/baehr_etal_cc_07.pdf text 2005 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T19:10:39Z Abstract We analyze the ability of an oceanic monitoring array to detect potential changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The observing array is ‘deployed’ into a numerical model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), and simulates the measurements of density and wind stress at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic. The simulated array mimics the continuous monitoring system deployed in the framework of the UK Rapid Climate Change program. We analyze a set of three realizations of a climate change scenario (IPCC A1B), in which – within the considered time-horizon of 200 years – the MOC weakens, but does not collapse. For the detection analysis, we assume that the natural variability of the MOC is known from an independent source, the control run. Our detection approach accounts for the effects of observation errors, infrequent observations, autocorrelated internal variability, and uncertainty in the initial conditions. Continuous observation with the simulated array for approximately 60 years yields a statistically significant (p < 0.05) detection with 95 percent reliability assuming a random observation error of 1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 s −1). Observing continuously with an observation error of 3 Sv yields a detection time of about 90 years (with 95 percent reliability). Repeated hydrographic transects every 5 years / 20 years result in a detection time of about 90 years/120 years, with 95 percent reliability and an assumed observation error of 3 Sv. An observation error of 3 Sv (one standard deviation) is a plausible estimate of the observation error associated with the RAPID UK 26 ◦ N array. 1 Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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Abstract We analyze the ability of an oceanic monitoring array to detect potential changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The observing array is ‘deployed’ into a numerical model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), and simulates the measurements of density and wind stress at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic. The simulated array mimics the continuous monitoring system deployed in the framework of the UK Rapid Climate Change program. We analyze a set of three realizations of a climate change scenario (IPCC A1B), in which – within the considered time-horizon of 200 years – the MOC weakens, but does not collapse. For the detection analysis, we assume that the natural variability of the MOC is known from an independent source, the control run. Our detection approach accounts for the effects of observation errors, infrequent observations, autocorrelated internal variability, and uncertainty in the initial conditions. Continuous observation with the simulated array for approximately 60 years yields a statistically significant (p < 0.05) detection with 95 percent reliability assuming a random observation error of 1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 s −1). Observing continuously with an observation error of 3 Sv yields a detection time of about 90 years (with 95 percent reliability). Repeated hydrographic transects every 5 years / 20 years result in a detection time of about 90 years/120 years, with 95 percent reliability and an assumed observation error of 3 Sv. An observation error of 3 Sv (one standard deviation) is a plausible estimate of the observation error associated with the RAPID UK 26 ◦ N array. 1 |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Johanna Baehr Klaus Keller Jochem Marotzke J. Baehr J. Marotzke |
spellingShingle |
Johanna Baehr Klaus Keller Jochem Marotzke J. Baehr J. Marotzke Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic |
author_facet |
Johanna Baehr Klaus Keller Jochem Marotzke J. Baehr J. Marotzke |
author_sort |
Johanna Baehr |
title |
Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic |
title_short |
Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic |
title_full |
Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ N in the Atlantic |
title_sort |
climatic change doi 10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 ◦ n in the atlantic |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.77.8055 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/baehr_etal_cc_07.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/baehr_etal_cc_07.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.77.8055 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/baehr_etal_cc_07.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766133638583287808 |