• Main Authors: Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, Doug Smith, Geophys Res
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.701.7780; http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Eswr06jir/presentations/JIR_IP_2012_poster.pdf

The Met Office decadal prediction system (DePreSys) is able to predict the mid 1990s Atlantic warming The initialisation of an anomalously strong Atlantic Overturning circulation, and hence ocean heat transport, was key to the successful predictions Successful prediction of the warming enables DePreSys hindcasts to also predict a shift in the wider climate that is similar to that observed, even over land Summary Initialised predictions of the rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s 1. Background • Since the early 1990s the North Atlantic has warmed significantly, especially in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG, see Fig. 1), which underwent a rapid warming in the mid 1990s • There is evidence that the warming was due to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and so could be predictable (1,2) •This study attempts to learn about the predictability of this event by using initialised near term climate predictions •We analyse initialised decadal predictions using the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), which assimilates observations into an ensemble of 9 perturbed physics versions of HadCM3 (3).