The Met Office decadal prediction system (DePreSys) is able to predict the mid 1990s Atlantic warming The initialisation of an anomalously strong Atlantic Overturning circulation, and hence ocean heat transport, was key to the successful predictions Successful prediction of the warming enables DePre...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.701.7780 2023-05-15T17:28:05+02:00 Jon Robson Rowan Sutton Doug Smith Geophys Res The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.701.7780 http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Eswr06jir/presentations/JIR_IP_2012_poster.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.701.7780 http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Eswr06jir/presentations/JIR_IP_2012_poster.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Eswr06jir/presentations/JIR_IP_2012_poster.pdf text ftciteseerx 2020-09-20T00:15:01Z The Met Office decadal prediction system (DePreSys) is able to predict the mid 1990s Atlantic warming The initialisation of an anomalously strong Atlantic Overturning circulation, and hence ocean heat transport, was key to the successful predictions Successful prediction of the warming enables DePreSys hindcasts to also predict a shift in the wider climate that is similar to that observed, even over land Summary Initialised predictions of the rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s 1. Background • Since the early 1990s the North Atlantic has warmed significantly, especially in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG, see Fig. 1), which underwent a rapid warming in the mid 1990s • There is evidence that the warming was due to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and so could be predictable (1,2) •This study attempts to learn about the predictability of this event by using initialised near term climate predictions •We analyse initialised decadal predictions using the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), which assimilates observations into an ensemble of 9 perturbed physics versions of HadCM3 (3). Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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English |
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The Met Office decadal prediction system (DePreSys) is able to predict the mid 1990s Atlantic warming The initialisation of an anomalously strong Atlantic Overturning circulation, and hence ocean heat transport, was key to the successful predictions Successful prediction of the warming enables DePreSys hindcasts to also predict a shift in the wider climate that is similar to that observed, even over land Summary Initialised predictions of the rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s 1. Background • Since the early 1990s the North Atlantic has warmed significantly, especially in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG, see Fig. 1), which underwent a rapid warming in the mid 1990s • There is evidence that the warming was due to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and so could be predictable (1,2) •This study attempts to learn about the predictability of this event by using initialised near term climate predictions •We analyse initialised decadal predictions using the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), which assimilates observations into an ensemble of 9 perturbed physics versions of HadCM3 (3). |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Jon Robson Rowan Sutton Doug Smith Geophys Res |
spellingShingle |
Jon Robson Rowan Sutton Doug Smith Geophys Res |
author_facet |
Jon Robson Rowan Sutton Doug Smith Geophys Res |
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Jon Robson |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.701.7780 http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Eswr06jir/presentations/JIR_IP_2012_poster.pdf |
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North Atlantic |
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North Atlantic |
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http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Eswr06jir/presentations/JIR_IP_2012_poster.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.701.7780 http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Eswr06jir/presentations/JIR_IP_2012_poster.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766120553161162752 |