Building a Microsimulation Model for Crime in Sweden: Issues and Applications

• Main Authors: Terance J. Rephann, Marianne Öhman
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1999
• Subjects: Microsimulation; forecasting; crime; regional variation; Sweden; Kiruna
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.694.7715; http://www.equotient.net/papers/crimemic.pdf

Abstract: Social scientists have developed numerous theoretical and empirical models of crime. However, dynamic regional microsimulation models to forecast crime or to simulate the effect of social welfare, labour, and law enforcement policies are not currently available. This paper outlines a proposal for developing a special crime module which would be linked to an existing dynamic spatial microsimulation model called SVERIGE (System for Visualising Economic and Regional Influences Governing the Environment). It describes how a unique geographically descriptive micro database called TOPSWING (Total Population of Sweden, Individual and Geographical database) housed at the Spatial Modelling Centre in Kiruna, Sweden, might be used to generate input data for developing estimates of individual propensities to commit imprisonable offences. It also describes how equations in such a module might be specified and how they could be linked with other economic and demographic variables in the microsimulation model. The paper concludes by suggesting issues and policies that could be investigated using microsimulation methods. Microsimulation was introduced over forty years ago (Orcutt 1957) and has experienced