Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model
Abstract. We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000, beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentra...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.693.9469 2023-05-15T17:31:28+02:00 Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model Stefan Rahmstorf Andrey Ganopolski The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 1999 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.693.9469 http://www.pik-potsdam.de/%7Estefan/Publications/Journals/rg99.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.693.9469 http://www.pik-potsdam.de/%7Estefan/Publications/Journals/rg99.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/%7Estefan/Publications/Journals/rg99.pdf text 1999 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T18:32:33Z Abstract. We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000, beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentrations. The thermohaline ocean circulation declines strongly in all our scenarios over the next 50 years due to a thermal effect. Changes in the hydrological cycle determine whether the circulation recovers or collapses in the long run. Both outcomes are possible within present uncertainty limits. In case of a collapse, a substantial long-lasting cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying of Europe is simulated. 1. Text North Atlantic Sea ice Unknown |
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English |
description |
Abstract. We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000, beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentrations. The thermohaline ocean circulation declines strongly in all our scenarios over the next 50 years due to a thermal effect. Changes in the hydrological cycle determine whether the circulation recovers or collapses in the long run. Both outcomes are possible within present uncertainty limits. In case of a collapse, a substantial long-lasting cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying of Europe is simulated. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Stefan Rahmstorf Andrey Ganopolski |
spellingShingle |
Stefan Rahmstorf Andrey Ganopolski Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model |
author_facet |
Stefan Rahmstorf Andrey Ganopolski |
author_sort |
Stefan Rahmstorf |
title |
Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model |
title_short |
Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model |
title_full |
Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model |
title_fullStr |
Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model |
title_sort |
long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model |
publishDate |
1999 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.693.9469 http://www.pik-potsdam.de/%7Estefan/Publications/Journals/rg99.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/%7Estefan/Publications/Journals/rg99.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.693.9469 http://www.pik-potsdam.de/%7Estefan/Publications/Journals/rg99.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766129084485599232 |