Acknowledgements

• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.682.9883; http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org/posters/C8/C8_Harvey_M82A.pdf

Thanks to Joaquim Pinto and Mark Reyers (Uni. Cologne) for supplying the data for Figure 1. In the zonal mean, the extra-tropical storm tracks are expected to shift poleward and upward in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing1, consistent with enhanced tropical convection widening the Hadley cell. Model simulations suggest, however, that the North Atlantic storm track will respond differently. Instead of a poleward shift, a strengthening and an eastward extension towards Europe is predicted (Figure 1a), albeit with a large inter-model spread (Figure 1b). As part of the UK’s NERC-funded TEMPEST project we are investigating the mechanisms behind this North Atlantic storm track response pattern, and also the sources of the large inter-model spread. Possible drivers of change Table 1 lists some physical processes which are likely to be important factors in setting the intensity and location of the North Atlantic storm track. They are split into “global drivers ” , meaning those that act on all storm tracks, and “regional drivers”, meaning those that are particular to the North Atlantic region. Here we focus on the regional drivers of change, in particular the impacts of the Atlantic sea surface