ADAPTATION TO FIVE METRES OF SEA LEVEL RISE

• Main Authors: Richard S. J. Tola, Maria Bohnd, Thomas E. Downinge, Marie-laure Guillerminetf, Roger Kaspersond, Kate Lonsdalee, Claire Maysh, Robert J. Nichollsi, Er A, Gabriele Pfeifleh, Marc Poumadereh, Ferenc L. Tothg, Nassos Vafeidisk, Peter E, Van Der Werffb, I. Hakan Yetkinerl
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2005
• Subjects: Antarctic; Rhone; West Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.666.3928; http://coastalchange.ca/download_files/external_reports/Tol_%282005%29_AdaptationtoFiveMeters.pdf

There is an unknown but small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse would imply a 5-6 metre sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a 5 metre sea level rise in a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option is retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. In the Rhine delta, the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam-Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small to the impacts of the same scenario in