Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models
Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse g...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.656.9334 2023-05-15T18:18:34+02:00 Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models Elizabeth A. Barnes Nicholas W. Barnes Lorenzo M. Polvani The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2013 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.656.9334 http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_Barnes_etal_2014_JCLI.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.656.9334 http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_Barnes_etal_2014_JCLI.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_Barnes_etal_2014_JCLI.pdf text 2013 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T16:39:39Z Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December–February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the sea-sonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the first half of the twenty-first century as a consequence of ozone recovery. After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate the climate response. Finally, comparing the relative influences of future GHG emissions and historic ozone depletion, it is found that the simulated DJF tropospheric circu-lation changes between 1965 and 2005 (driven primarily by ozone depletion) are larger than the projected changes in any future scenario over the entire twenty-first century. 1. Text Sea ice Unknown |
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English |
description |
Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December–February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the sea-sonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the first half of the twenty-first century as a consequence of ozone recovery. After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate the climate response. Finally, comparing the relative influences of future GHG emissions and historic ozone depletion, it is found that the simulated DJF tropospheric circu-lation changes between 1965 and 2005 (driven primarily by ozone depletion) are larger than the projected changes in any future scenario over the entire twenty-first century. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Elizabeth A. Barnes Nicholas W. Barnes Lorenzo M. Polvani |
spellingShingle |
Elizabeth A. Barnes Nicholas W. Barnes Lorenzo M. Polvani Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models |
author_facet |
Elizabeth A. Barnes Nicholas W. Barnes Lorenzo M. Polvani |
author_sort |
Elizabeth A. Barnes |
title |
Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models |
title_short |
Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models |
title_full |
Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models |
title_fullStr |
Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models |
title_sort |
delayed southern hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery, as projected by the cmip5 models |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.656.9334 http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_Barnes_etal_2014_JCLI.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_Barnes_etal_2014_JCLI.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.656.9334 http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_Barnes_etal_2014_JCLI.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766195188132216832 |