Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes

• Main Author: Elizabeth A. Barnes
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2013
• Subjects: Arctic; Posi; Tive; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.655.7010; http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_2013_GRL_w_supp.pdf

[1] Previous studies have suggested that Arctic ampli-fication has caused planetary-scale waves to elongate meridionally and slow down, resulting in more frequent blocking patterns and extreme weather. Here trends in the meridional extent of atmospheric waves over North America and the North Atlantic are investigated in three reanaly-ses, and it is demonstrated that previously reported posi-tive trends are likely an artifact of the methodology. No significant decrease in planetary-scale wave phase speeds are found except in October-November-December, but this trend is sensitive to the analysis parameters. Moreover, the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season in any of the three reanalyses, further supporting the lack of trends in wave speed and meridional extent. This work highlights that observed trends in mid-latitude weather patterns are complex and likely not simply understood in terms of Arctic amplification alone. Citation: Barnes, E. A. (2013), Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic ampli-fication to extreme weather in midlatitudes,Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50880. 1.