R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker
Abstract We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive compatible: it is optimal for traders to report their true be-liefs about the likelihood of an event outcome provi...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.638.7676 2023-05-15T18:12:05+02:00 R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker Yiling Chen Stanko Dimitrov Rahul Sami Robin D. Hanson Lance Fortnow Rica Gonen Y. Chen S. Dimitrov R. Sami R. D. Hanson L. Fortnow R. Gonen The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2010 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.638.7676 http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~fiat/seminformation/gaming.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.638.7676 http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~fiat/seminformation/gaming.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~fiat/seminformation/gaming.pdf text 2010 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T15:49:33Z Abstract We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive compatible: it is optimal for traders to report their true be-liefs about the likelihood of an event outcome provided that they ignore the impact of their reports on the profit they might garner from future trades. In this paper, we analyze non-myopic strategies and examine what information structures lead to truth-ful betting by traders. Specifically, we analyze the behavior of risk-neutral traders with incomplete information playing in a dynamic game. We consider finite-stage and infinite-stage game models. For each model, we study the logarithmic market Preliminary versions of some of the results in this paper were presented in two conference papers, Chen et al. [10] and Dimitrov and Sami [13]. Text sami Unknown |
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Abstract We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive compatible: it is optimal for traders to report their true be-liefs about the likelihood of an event outcome provided that they ignore the impact of their reports on the profit they might garner from future trades. In this paper, we analyze non-myopic strategies and examine what information structures lead to truth-ful betting by traders. Specifically, we analyze the behavior of risk-neutral traders with incomplete information playing in a dynamic game. We consider finite-stage and infinite-stage game models. For each model, we study the logarithmic market Preliminary versions of some of the results in this paper were presented in two conference papers, Chen et al. [10] and Dimitrov and Sami [13]. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Yiling Chen Stanko Dimitrov Rahul Sami Robin D. Hanson Lance Fortnow Rica Gonen Y. Chen S. Dimitrov R. Sami R. D. Hanson L. Fortnow R. Gonen |
spellingShingle |
Yiling Chen Stanko Dimitrov Rahul Sami Robin D. Hanson Lance Fortnow Rica Gonen Y. Chen S. Dimitrov R. Sami R. D. Hanson L. Fortnow R. Gonen R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker |
author_facet |
Yiling Chen Stanko Dimitrov Rahul Sami Robin D. Hanson Lance Fortnow Rica Gonen Y. Chen S. Dimitrov R. Sami R. D. Hanson L. Fortnow R. Gonen |
author_sort |
Yiling Chen |
title |
R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker |
title_short |
R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker |
title_full |
R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker |
title_fullStr |
R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker |
title_full_unstemmed |
R.: Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker |
title_sort |
r.: gaming prediction markets: equilibrium strategies with a market maker |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.638.7676 http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~fiat/seminformation/gaming.pdf |
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sami |
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sami |
op_source |
http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~fiat/seminformation/gaming.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.638.7676 http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~fiat/seminformation/gaming.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766184649818636288 |