Introduction and overview

• Main Authors: Gerald D. Bell, Eric S. Blake, Muthuvel Chelliah, Stanley Goldenberg, Chris Landsea, Richard Pasch
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: John Wiley and Sons 1977
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.637.377; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/proceedings/cdw27_proceedings/gbell_2002.pdf

The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season featured twelve named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is one-half the average seasonal number of hurricanes measured since a marked upturn in hurricane activity began in 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001). The climatological peak in Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between mid-August and mid-October from an increased number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forming in the Main Development Region [MDR, defined as the tropical North Atlantic south of 21°N and the Caribbean Sea]. During 2002 nine of the twelve named storms and all four hurricanes formed during this 2-month period, but only three of these systems formed in the MDR. The 2002 seasonal activity reflected the competing influences of three leading climate factors: El Niño, the active multi-decadal signal, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The decreased activity in the MDR was related to El Niño (section d1). However, key aspects of the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Atlantic continued to reflect the ongoing active multi-decadal signal, which moderated the “apparent ” El Nino signal in portions of the MDR (section d2). A “window of opportunity ” for hurricane activity in late September and early October developed in response to the westerly phase of the MJO, which temporarily offset the high vertical wind shear associated with El Niño during a period when conditions are climatologically most conducive to hurricane development (section e). b. Seasonal Activity The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defines the total seasonal activity based on the combined strength, duration, and number of named storms and 3 hurricanes (Bell et al. 2000). One measure of this seasonal activity is