ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance
Because of the importance of Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) in predicting sea level change, models are created to predict SMB on the Antarctic ice sheet. Using Favier et al.’s quality-controlled aggregate data set N = 3529, a fully Bayesian spatial model has been utilized to predict Antarctic...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.636.4675 2023-05-15T13:38:43+02:00 ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance Philip Andrew White The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2014 http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.636.4675 http://www.physics.byu.edu/docs/thesis/397/ en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.636.4675 http://www.physics.byu.edu/docs/thesis/397/ Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.physics.byu.edu/docs/thesis/397/ Bayesian statistics climate modeling Gaussian process global warming Metropolis- Hastings spatial statistics surface mass balance text 2014 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T15:43:24Z Because of the importance of Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) in predicting sea level change, models are created to predict SMB on the Antarctic ice sheet. Using Favier et al.’s quality-controlled aggregate data set N = 3529, a fully Bayesian spatial model has been utilized to predict Antarctic SMB (Favier et al. 2013). Utilizing Markov random fields constructed through Gaussian process models, SMB is predicted over the entire Antarctic ice sheet. An SMB surface over the Antarctic ice sheet is computed by this model and compared with previous maps. An SMB predic-tion error surface is created to identify regions of high prediction uncertainty. This model estimates total SMB to be 1.75±0.335 ·1012 m3 ·w.e ·yr−1 and mean SMB as 124.80±23.85 mm ·w.e. ·yr−1. These results suggest lower Antarctic water accumulation than previously purported. The calcu-lated SMB surface showed more negative SMB regions and higher spatial variation than is likely plausible. Lastly, Antarctic boundary regions and areas with little data show high prediction un-certainty by the generated SMB prediction uncertainty surface. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Unknown Antarctic Hastings ENVELOPE(-154.167,-154.167,-85.567,-85.567) The Antarctic |
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English |
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Bayesian statistics climate modeling Gaussian process global warming Metropolis- Hastings spatial statistics surface mass balance |
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Bayesian statistics climate modeling Gaussian process global warming Metropolis- Hastings spatial statistics surface mass balance Philip Andrew White ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance |
topic_facet |
Bayesian statistics climate modeling Gaussian process global warming Metropolis- Hastings spatial statistics surface mass balance |
description |
Because of the importance of Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) in predicting sea level change, models are created to predict SMB on the Antarctic ice sheet. Using Favier et al.’s quality-controlled aggregate data set N = 3529, a fully Bayesian spatial model has been utilized to predict Antarctic SMB (Favier et al. 2013). Utilizing Markov random fields constructed through Gaussian process models, SMB is predicted over the entire Antarctic ice sheet. An SMB surface over the Antarctic ice sheet is computed by this model and compared with previous maps. An SMB predic-tion error surface is created to identify regions of high prediction uncertainty. This model estimates total SMB to be 1.75±0.335 ·1012 m3 ·w.e ·yr−1 and mean SMB as 124.80±23.85 mm ·w.e. ·yr−1. These results suggest lower Antarctic water accumulation than previously purported. The calcu-lated SMB surface showed more negative SMB regions and higher spatial variation than is likely plausible. Lastly, Antarctic boundary regions and areas with little data show high prediction un-certainty by the generated SMB prediction uncertainty surface. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Philip Andrew White |
author_facet |
Philip Andrew White |
author_sort |
Philip Andrew White |
title |
ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance |
title_short |
ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance |
title_full |
ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance |
title_fullStr |
ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance |
title_full_unstemmed |
ABSTRACT Quantifying Climate Change: Bayesian Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance |
title_sort |
abstract quantifying climate change: bayesian model for antarctic surface mass balance |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.636.4675 http://www.physics.byu.edu/docs/thesis/397/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-154.167,-154.167,-85.567,-85.567) |
geographic |
Antarctic Hastings The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Hastings The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
http://www.physics.byu.edu/docs/thesis/397/ |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.636.4675 http://www.physics.byu.edu/docs/thesis/397/ |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766110360473960448 |