Forecasting Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillation Indices

• Main Authors: Long Lead-time Streamflow, Niroj Kumar Shrestha
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Pacific; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.636.3645; http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperDownload.aspx?paperID=45472

Climatic variability influences the hydrological cycle that subsequently affects the discharge in the stream. The variability in the climate can be represented by the ocean-atmospheric oscillations which provide the forecast opportunity for the streamflow. Prediction of future water availability accurately and reliably is a key step for successful water resource management in the arid regions. Four popular ocean-atmospheric indices were used in this study for annual streamflow volume prediction. They were Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), At-lantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Multivariate Relev-ance Vector Machine (MVRVM), a data driven model based on Bayesian learning approach was used as a prediction model. The model was applied to four unimpaired stream gages in Utah that spatially covers the state from north to south. Different models were developed based on the com-binations of oscillation indices in the input. A total of 60 years (1950-2009) of data were used for the analysis. The model was trained on 50 years of data (1950-1999) and tested on 10 years of da-ta (2000-2009). The best combination of oscillation indices and the lead-time were identified for each gage which was used to develop the prediction model. The predicted flow had reasonable