Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data
Abstract.—We developed a sex ratio index that, together with cumulative catch of all gears or cumulative catch per unit effort of the seine fishery, estimated abundance and catch of pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha in southern Southeast Alaska during a fishing season. We evaluated three inseason f...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.613.5573 2023-05-15T17:52:52+02:00 Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data Jie Zheng Ole A. Mathisen The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.613.5573 http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/wlf448/2008/Documents/Inseason Forecasting of Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.613.5573 http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/wlf448/2008/Documents/Inseason Forecasting of Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/wlf448/2008/Documents/Inseason Forecasting of Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T14:37:46Z Abstract.—We developed a sex ratio index that, together with cumulative catch of all gears or cumulative catch per unit effort of the seine fishery, estimated abundance and catch of pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha in southern Southeast Alaska during a fishing season. We evaluated three inseason forecast models—linear, nonlinear, and combined—using data from 1983 to 1997. Based on a cross-validation evaluation of forecast accuracy, the nonlinear model generally outperformed the linear and combined models. Cumulative catch per unit effort was a better predictor than cumulative catch in the first 3 weeks (statistical weeks 28–30) of a fishing season, but the relation was reversed for the remaining 5 weeks. Inseason abundance estimations greatly outperformed the preseason forecasts. Incorporating sex ratios into inseason forecast models correctly adjusted the run timings during a large majority of years and thus improved overall forecasts starting in the second week. In the second through fifth weeks (weeks 29–32), the best performing model with sex ratios improved forecasts more than 30 % over the best model without sex ratios; im-provements included averages of absolute percentages of relative forecast errors, absolute devi-ations, and squared residuals. Average absolute percentages of relative forecast errors from the best model were less than 20 % before the midpoint of the run and less than 14 % at and after the Text Oncorhynchus gorbuscha Pink salmon Alaska Unknown |
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English |
description |
Abstract.—We developed a sex ratio index that, together with cumulative catch of all gears or cumulative catch per unit effort of the seine fishery, estimated abundance and catch of pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha in southern Southeast Alaska during a fishing season. We evaluated three inseason forecast models—linear, nonlinear, and combined—using data from 1983 to 1997. Based on a cross-validation evaluation of forecast accuracy, the nonlinear model generally outperformed the linear and combined models. Cumulative catch per unit effort was a better predictor than cumulative catch in the first 3 weeks (statistical weeks 28–30) of a fishing season, but the relation was reversed for the remaining 5 weeks. Inseason abundance estimations greatly outperformed the preseason forecasts. Incorporating sex ratios into inseason forecast models correctly adjusted the run timings during a large majority of years and thus improved overall forecasts starting in the second week. In the second through fifth weeks (weeks 29–32), the best performing model with sex ratios improved forecasts more than 30 % over the best model without sex ratios; im-provements included averages of absolute percentages of relative forecast errors, absolute devi-ations, and squared residuals. Average absolute percentages of relative forecast errors from the best model were less than 20 % before the midpoint of the run and less than 14 % at and after the |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Jie Zheng Ole A. Mathisen |
spellingShingle |
Jie Zheng Ole A. Mathisen Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data |
author_facet |
Jie Zheng Ole A. Mathisen |
author_sort |
Jie Zheng |
title |
Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data |
title_short |
Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data |
title_full |
Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data |
title_fullStr |
Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Inseason Forecasting of Southeastern Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios and Commercial Catch and Effort Data |
title_sort |
inseason forecasting of southeastern alaska pink salmon abundance based on sex ratios and commercial catch and effort data |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.613.5573 http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/wlf448/2008/Documents/Inseason Forecasting of Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios.pdf |
genre |
Oncorhynchus gorbuscha Pink salmon Alaska |
genre_facet |
Oncorhynchus gorbuscha Pink salmon Alaska |
op_source |
http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/wlf448/2008/Documents/Inseason Forecasting of Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.613.5573 http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/wlf448/2008/Documents/Inseason Forecasting of Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Sex Ratios.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766160612257169408 |