Slater (2005), A projection of severe nearsurface permafrost degradation during the 21st century, Geophys. Res

• Main Authors: David M. Lawrence, Andrew G. Slater
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Jorgenson et al; 2001; Serreze et al; 2002; Zhang et al; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Ice; permafrost
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.583.864; http://cirrus.unbc.ca/454/lec/LawrenceSlater2005.pdf

[1] The current distribution and future projections of permafrost are examined in a fully coupled global climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. The spatial extent of simulated present-day permafrost in CCSM3 agrees well with observational estimates – an area, excluding ice sheets, of 10.5 million km2. By 2100, as little as 1.0 million km2 of near-surface permafrost remains. Freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean rises by 28 % over the same period, largely due to increases in precipitation that outpace increases in evaporation, with about 15 % of the rise directly attributable to melting ground ice. Such large changes in permafrost may provoke feedbacks such as activation of the soil carbon pool and a northward expansion of shrubs and forests. Citation: Lawrence, D. M., and A. G. Slater (2005), A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24401, doi:10.1029/2005GL025080. 1.