Has arctic sea ice rapidly thinned

• Main Authors: Greg Holloway, Tessa Sou
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2002
• Subjects: Arctic; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.583.7025; http://www.planetwater.ca/research/sea-ice/JClimate/9.pdf

Reports based on submarine sonar data have suggested Arctic sea ice has thinned nearly by half in recent decades. Such rapid thinning is a concern for detection of global change and for Arctic regional impacts. Including atmospheric timeseries, ocean currents and rivers runoff into an ocean-ice-snow model shows the inferred rapid thinning was unlikely. The problem stems from undersampling. Varying winds which readily redistribute Arctic ice create a recurring pattern whereby ice shifts between the central Arctic and peripheral regions, especially in the Canadian sector. Timing and tracks of the submarine surveys missed this dominant mode of variability. Although model-derived overall thinning from the 1960s to 1990s was less than hitherto supposed, there is also indication of accelerated thinning during the early-mid-1990s. 1.