ADAPTATION TO FIVE METRES OF SEA LEVEL RISE
There is an unknown but small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse would imply a 5-6 metre sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implau...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2005
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.580.7216 http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/projects/atlantis/annex8.pdf |
Summary: | There is an unknown but small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse would imply a 5-6 metre sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a 5 metre sea level rise in a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option is retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. In the Rhine delta, the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam-Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small to the impacts of the same scenario in |
---|