2006), Climate change of the twentieth through twenty-first centuries simulated by the MRI-CGCM2.3

• Main Authors: Seiji Yukimoto, Akira Noda, Takao Uchiyama, Shoji Kusunoki
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Sea ice
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.562.3072; http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/Yukimoto_2005_Papers-submit.pdf

Experiments for the twentieth century historical climate change and the twenty-first century scenario are performed with the latest version of the MRI climate model MRI-CGCM2.3. The model reproduced the globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) variation in the twentieth century with a good agreement in the interdecadal change of the observed trend, as well as the overall SAT increase of 0.5°C relative to the pre-industrial level. In the scenario experiment for the IPCC SRES-A1B, the globally averaged SAT rise 2.4°C in the late twenty-first century. Spatial structures of the simulated trends for the late twentieth century are validated in various atmospheric fields by comparing with observed data, and proved that the model demonstrates reasonable agreement in each fields with the observed trend. Most of the simulated changes for the twenty-first century are projected onto those trends appeared in the late twentieth century. The simulated patterns of the sea level pressure (SLP) in the both hemispheres bear a resemblance to the observed trends, with each spatial structure is reminiscent of the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere annular modes (NAM and SAM, respectively). These SLP trend patterns are consistent with the trends in the SAT, precipitation and zonal mean zonal wind fields, similarly as in the NAM and SAM, and the coherent trend structures of these fields are projected to enhance in the twenty-first century climate change. The changes of ocean and sea ice with an association with these atmospheric changes are also described. 1.