Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001
Recent proposed seasonal hindcast skill estimates for the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are derived from different lagged predictors, NAO indices, skill assessment periods, and skill validation meth-odologies. This creates confusion concerning what is the best-lagged predictor of the winte...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.548.524 2023-05-15T17:28:24+02:00 Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001 Christopher G. Fletcher Mark A. Saunders The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2005 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.548.524 http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/people/cgf/Home_files/fletcher_saunders_2006.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.548.524 http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/people/cgf/Home_files/fletcher_saunders_2006.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/people/cgf/Home_files/fletcher_saunders_2006.pdf of winter temperature precipitation and storminess text 2005 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T11:24:15Z Recent proposed seasonal hindcast skill estimates for the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are derived from different lagged predictors, NAO indices, skill assessment periods, and skill validation meth-odologies. This creates confusion concerning what is the best-lagged predictor of the winter NAO. To rectify this situation, a standardized comparison of NAO cross-validated hindcast skill is performed against three NAO indices over three extended periods (1900–2001, 1950–2001, and 1972–2001). The lagged pre-dictors comprise four previously published predictors involving anomalies in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover, and an additional predictor, an index of NH subpolar summer air temperature (TSP). Significant ( p 0.05) NAO hindcast skill is found with May SST 1900–2001, summer/autumn SST 1950–2001, and warm season snow cover 1972–2001. However, the highest and most significant hindcast skill for all periods and all NAO indices is achieved with TSP. Hindcast skill is nonstationary using all predictors and is highest during 1972–2001 with a TSP correlation skill of 0.59 and a mean-squared skill score of 35%. Observational evidence is presented to support a dynamical link between summer TSP and the winter NAO. Summer TSP is associated with a contemporaneous midlatitude zonal wind anomaly. This leads a pattern of North Atlantic SST that persists through autumn. Autumn SSTs may force a direct thermal NAO response or initiate a response via a third variable. These findings suggest that the NH subpolar regions may provide additional winter NAO lagged predictability alongside the midlatitudes and the Tropics. 1. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown |
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English |
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of winter temperature precipitation and storminess |
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of winter temperature precipitation and storminess Christopher G. Fletcher Mark A. Saunders Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001 |
topic_facet |
of winter temperature precipitation and storminess |
description |
Recent proposed seasonal hindcast skill estimates for the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are derived from different lagged predictors, NAO indices, skill assessment periods, and skill validation meth-odologies. This creates confusion concerning what is the best-lagged predictor of the winter NAO. To rectify this situation, a standardized comparison of NAO cross-validated hindcast skill is performed against three NAO indices over three extended periods (1900–2001, 1950–2001, and 1972–2001). The lagged pre-dictors comprise four previously published predictors involving anomalies in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover, and an additional predictor, an index of NH subpolar summer air temperature (TSP). Significant ( p 0.05) NAO hindcast skill is found with May SST 1900–2001, summer/autumn SST 1950–2001, and warm season snow cover 1972–2001. However, the highest and most significant hindcast skill for all periods and all NAO indices is achieved with TSP. Hindcast skill is nonstationary using all predictors and is highest during 1972–2001 with a TSP correlation skill of 0.59 and a mean-squared skill score of 35%. Observational evidence is presented to support a dynamical link between summer TSP and the winter NAO. Summer TSP is associated with a contemporaneous midlatitude zonal wind anomaly. This leads a pattern of North Atlantic SST that persists through autumn. Autumn SSTs may force a direct thermal NAO response or initiate a response via a third variable. These findings suggest that the NH subpolar regions may provide additional winter NAO lagged predictability alongside the midlatitudes and the Tropics. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Christopher G. Fletcher Mark A. Saunders |
author_facet |
Christopher G. Fletcher Mark A. Saunders |
author_sort |
Christopher G. Fletcher |
title |
Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001 |
title_short |
Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001 |
title_full |
Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001 |
title_fullStr |
Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900–2001 |
title_sort |
winter north atlantic oscillation hindcast skill: 1900–2001 |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.548.524 http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/people/cgf/Home_files/fletcher_saunders_2006.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/people/cgf/Home_files/fletcher_saunders_2006.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.548.524 http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/people/cgf/Home_files/fletcher_saunders_2006.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766121051057553408 |