FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest
Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and 20 th century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These model...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.544.8633 2023-05-15T13:50:02+02:00 FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest Philip W. Mote Eric P. Salathé The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.544.8633 http://cses.washington.edu/cig/files/waccia/Ch1_Mote_Salathe_final.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.544.8633 http://cses.washington.edu/cig/files/waccia/Ch1_Mote_Salathe_final.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/files/waccia/Ch1_Mote_Salathe_final.pdf FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 3 1. Global climate models text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T11:14:34Z Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and 20 th century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.2°C (2.2°F) by the 2020s, 2.0°C (3.5°F) by the 2040s, and 3.3°C (5.9°F) by the 2080s, compared to 1970 to1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1 to 0.6°C (0.2 ° to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1 to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of 21 st century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as 20 th century values (20cm, 8”) or as large as 1.3m (50”). Text Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Unknown Greenland Pacific |
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FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 3 1. Global climate models |
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FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 3 1. Global climate models Philip W. Mote Eric P. Salathé FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest |
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FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 3 1. Global climate models |
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Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and 20 th century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.2°C (2.2°F) by the 2020s, 2.0°C (3.5°F) by the 2040s, and 3.3°C (5.9°F) by the 2080s, compared to 1970 to1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1 to 0.6°C (0.2 ° to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1 to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of 21 st century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as 20 th century values (20cm, 8”) or as large as 1.3m (50”). |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Philip W. Mote Eric P. Salathé |
author_facet |
Philip W. Mote Eric P. Salathé |
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Philip W. Mote |
title |
FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest |
title_short |
FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest |
title_full |
FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest |
title_fullStr |
FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest |
title_full_unstemmed |
FINAL DRAFT (2.10.09) – Page 1 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest |
title_sort |
final draft (2.10.09) – page 1 future climate in the pacific northwest |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.544.8633 http://cses.washington.edu/cig/files/waccia/Ch1_Mote_Salathe_final.pdf |
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Greenland Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Pacific |
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Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
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Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
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http://cses.washington.edu/cig/files/waccia/Ch1_Mote_Salathe_final.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.544.8633 http://cses.washington.edu/cig/files/waccia/Ch1_Mote_Salathe_final.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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