Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic

ABSTRACT. Changes in extreme temperatures and pressures in the Arctic have received little attention in the context of climate change. Here we examine the distributions and extremes of surface air temperature and pressure in the Arctic for the late 20th century, using Alaskan weather station data, a...

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Main Authors: Michael S. Timlin, John E. Walsh
Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2007
Subjects:
Online Access:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.538.7955
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic60-4-389.pdf
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spelling ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.538.7955 2023-05-15T14:19:43+02:00 Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic Michael S. Timlin John E. Walsh The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2007 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.538.7955 http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic60-4-389.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.538.7955 http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic60-4-389.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic60-4-389.pdf Key words Alaska Arctic climate temperature atmospheric pressure extremes thresholds climate projections text 2007 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T10:56:15Z ABSTRACT. Changes in extreme temperatures and pressures in the Arctic have received little attention in the context of climate change. Here we examine the distributions and extremes of surface air temperature and pressure in the Arctic for the late 20th century, using Alaskan weather station data, an atmospheric reanalysis, and general circulation models (GCMs). There is good agreement among these sources for the late 20th century, with broader distributions for both temperature and pressure in winter as compared to summer, and over land as compared to over ocean. We used the output from 21st-century greenhouse simulations by the GCMs to address the occurrence of extremes in the coming decades. The model projections of the 21st-century extremes largely agree with changes in the mean state, with record low temperatures decreasing in frequency and record high temperatures increasing in frequency. The changes in 21st-century extremes are more pronounced over the ocean, where the present-day distributions are narrower. The projected decreases of mean pressure result in more frequent occurrences of extreme low pressure, especially over the Arctic Ocean, although the extremes of pressure are less affected by changes of the means than are the extremes of temperature. Lastly, we find that the transition from sea ice to open water, and associated changes in the salinity of the surface water, can cause changes in the temperature distribution that are more complex than simple shifts in the distribution, leading to unexpected changes in the occurrence of extreme temperatures. Text Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Alaska Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean
institution Open Polar
collection Unknown
op_collection_id ftciteseerx
language English
topic Key words
Alaska
Arctic
climate
temperature
atmospheric pressure
extremes
thresholds
climate projections
spellingShingle Key words
Alaska
Arctic
climate
temperature
atmospheric pressure
extremes
thresholds
climate projections
Michael S. Timlin
John E. Walsh
Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic
topic_facet Key words
Alaska
Arctic
climate
temperature
atmospheric pressure
extremes
thresholds
climate projections
description ABSTRACT. Changes in extreme temperatures and pressures in the Arctic have received little attention in the context of climate change. Here we examine the distributions and extremes of surface air temperature and pressure in the Arctic for the late 20th century, using Alaskan weather station data, an atmospheric reanalysis, and general circulation models (GCMs). There is good agreement among these sources for the late 20th century, with broader distributions for both temperature and pressure in winter as compared to summer, and over land as compared to over ocean. We used the output from 21st-century greenhouse simulations by the GCMs to address the occurrence of extremes in the coming decades. The model projections of the 21st-century extremes largely agree with changes in the mean state, with record low temperatures decreasing in frequency and record high temperatures increasing in frequency. The changes in 21st-century extremes are more pronounced over the ocean, where the present-day distributions are narrower. The projected decreases of mean pressure result in more frequent occurrences of extreme low pressure, especially over the Arctic Ocean, although the extremes of pressure are less affected by changes of the means than are the extremes of temperature. Lastly, we find that the transition from sea ice to open water, and associated changes in the salinity of the surface water, can cause changes in the temperature distribution that are more complex than simple shifts in the distribution, leading to unexpected changes in the occurrence of extreme temperatures.
author2 The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
format Text
author Michael S. Timlin
John E. Walsh
author_facet Michael S. Timlin
John E. Walsh
author_sort Michael S. Timlin
title Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic
title_short Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic
title_full Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic
title_fullStr Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic
title_full_unstemmed Historical and Projected Distributions of Daily Temperature and Pressure in the Arctic
title_sort historical and projected distributions of daily temperature and pressure in the arctic
publishDate 2007
url http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.538.7955
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic60-4-389.pdf
geographic Arctic
Arctic Ocean
geographic_facet Arctic
Arctic Ocean
genre Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Climate change
Sea ice
Alaska
genre_facet Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Climate change
Sea ice
Alaska
op_source http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic60-4-389.pdf
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http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic60-4-389.pdf
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