Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation
A new product for estimating the 24-h probability of TC formation in individual 58 3 58 subregions of the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific tropical basins is developed. This product uses environmental and convective parameters computed from best-track tropical cyclone...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.524.6169 2023-05-15T17:35:35+02:00 Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation Andrea B. Schumacher Mark Demaria John A. Knaff The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2007 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.524.6169 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/Schumacher_etal_2009.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.524.6169 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/Schumacher_etal_2009.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/Schumacher_etal_2009.pdf text 2007 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T10:18:04Z A new product for estimating the 24-h probability of TC formation in individual 58 3 58 subregions of the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific tropical basins is developed. This product uses environmental and convective parameters computed from best-track tropical cyclone (TC) positions, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis fields, and water vapor (;6.7 mm wavelength) imagery from multiple geostationary satellite platforms. The pa-rameters are used in a two-step algorithm applied to the developmental dataset. First, a screening step removes all data points with environmental conditions highly unfavorable to TC formation. Then, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is applied to the screened dataset. A probabilistic prediction scheme for TC formation is developed from the results of the LDA. Coefficients computed by the LDA show that the largest contributors to TC formation probability are climatology, 850-hPa circulation, and distance to an existing TC. The product was evaluated by its Brier and relative operating characteristic skill scores and reliability diagrams. These measures show that the algorithm-generated probabilistic forecasts are skillful with respect to climatology, and that there is relatively good agreement between forecast probabilities and observed frequencies. As such, this prediction scheme has been implemented as an operational product called the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and In-formation Services (NESDIS) Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product. The TCFP product updates every 6 h and displays plots of TC formation probability and input parameter values on its Web site. At present, the TCFP provides real-time, objective TC formation guidance used by tropical cyclone forecast offices in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western Pacific basins. Text North Atlantic Unknown Pacific |
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description |
A new product for estimating the 24-h probability of TC formation in individual 58 3 58 subregions of the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific tropical basins is developed. This product uses environmental and convective parameters computed from best-track tropical cyclone (TC) positions, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis fields, and water vapor (;6.7 mm wavelength) imagery from multiple geostationary satellite platforms. The pa-rameters are used in a two-step algorithm applied to the developmental dataset. First, a screening step removes all data points with environmental conditions highly unfavorable to TC formation. Then, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is applied to the screened dataset. A probabilistic prediction scheme for TC formation is developed from the results of the LDA. Coefficients computed by the LDA show that the largest contributors to TC formation probability are climatology, 850-hPa circulation, and distance to an existing TC. The product was evaluated by its Brier and relative operating characteristic skill scores and reliability diagrams. These measures show that the algorithm-generated probabilistic forecasts are skillful with respect to climatology, and that there is relatively good agreement between forecast probabilities and observed frequencies. As such, this prediction scheme has been implemented as an operational product called the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and In-formation Services (NESDIS) Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product. The TCFP product updates every 6 h and displays plots of TC formation probability and input parameter values on its Web site. At present, the TCFP provides real-time, objective TC formation guidance used by tropical cyclone forecast offices in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western Pacific basins. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Andrea B. Schumacher Mark Demaria John A. Knaff |
spellingShingle |
Andrea B. Schumacher Mark Demaria John A. Knaff Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation |
author_facet |
Andrea B. Schumacher Mark Demaria John A. Knaff |
author_sort |
Andrea B. Schumacher |
title |
Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation |
title_short |
Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation |
title_full |
Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation |
title_fullStr |
Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation |
title_sort |
objective estimation of the 24-h probability of tropical cyclone formation |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.524.6169 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/Schumacher_etal_2009.pdf |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/Schumacher_etal_2009.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.524.6169 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/Schumacher_etal_2009.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766134796494307328 |