Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION
A space–time count process model is explained and applied to annual North Atlantic hurricane activity. The model uses the best-track data set of historical hurricane positions and intensities, together with climate variables, to determine local space–time coefficients of a right-truncated Poisson pr...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2001
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.500.8132 http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf |
id |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.500.8132 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.500.8132 2023-05-15T17:30:54+02:00 Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION Thomas H. Jagger Xufeng Niua James B. Elsnerb The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2001 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.500.8132 http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.500.8132 http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf KEY WORDS North Atlantic Ocean space–time Poisson regression US hurricanes ENSO NAO African rainfall text 2001 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T09:07:36Z A space–time count process model is explained and applied to annual North Atlantic hurricane activity. The model uses the best-track data set of historical hurricane positions and intensities, together with climate variables, to determine local space–time coefficients of a right-truncated Poisson process. The truncated Poisson space–time autoregressive (TPSTAR) model is motivated by first examining a time-series model for the entire domain. Then a Poisson generalized linear model is considered that uses grid boxes within the domain and adds offset factors for latitude and longitude. A natural extension is then made that includes instantaneous local and autoregressive coupling between the grids. A final version of the model is found by backward selection of the predictors based on values of Bayesian and Akiake information criteria. The final model has five nearest neighbours and statistically significant couplings. Hindcasts are performed on the hurricane seasons from 1994 to 1997. Results show that, on average, model forecast probabilities are larger in regions in which hurricanes occurred. Quantitative skill assessment indicates some useful skill above climatology — currently the default leading candidate. The TPSTAR model could be a valuable guidance product when issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts. Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
topic |
KEY WORDS North Atlantic Ocean space–time Poisson regression US hurricanes ENSO NAO African rainfall |
spellingShingle |
KEY WORDS North Atlantic Ocean space–time Poisson regression US hurricanes ENSO NAO African rainfall Thomas H. Jagger Xufeng Niua James B. Elsnerb Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION |
topic_facet |
KEY WORDS North Atlantic Ocean space–time Poisson regression US hurricanes ENSO NAO African rainfall |
description |
A space–time count process model is explained and applied to annual North Atlantic hurricane activity. The model uses the best-track data set of historical hurricane positions and intensities, together with climate variables, to determine local space–time coefficients of a right-truncated Poisson process. The truncated Poisson space–time autoregressive (TPSTAR) model is motivated by first examining a time-series model for the entire domain. Then a Poisson generalized linear model is considered that uses grid boxes within the domain and adds offset factors for latitude and longitude. A natural extension is then made that includes instantaneous local and autoregressive coupling between the grids. A final version of the model is found by backward selection of the predictors based on values of Bayesian and Akiake information criteria. The final model has five nearest neighbours and statistically significant couplings. Hindcasts are performed on the hurricane seasons from 1994 to 1997. Results show that, on average, model forecast probabilities are larger in regions in which hurricanes occurred. Quantitative skill assessment indicates some useful skill above climatology — currently the default leading candidate. The TPSTAR model could be a valuable guidance product when issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts. Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Thomas H. Jagger Xufeng Niua James B. Elsnerb |
author_facet |
Thomas H. Jagger Xufeng Niua James B. Elsnerb |
author_sort |
Thomas H. Jagger |
title |
Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION |
title_short |
Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION |
title_full |
Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION |
title_fullStr |
Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION |
title_full_unstemmed |
Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI:10.1002/joc.755 A SPACE–TIME MODEL FOR SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION |
title_sort |
published online in wiley interscience (www.interscience.wiley.com). doi:10.1002/joc.755 a space–time model for seasonal hurricane prediction |
publishDate |
2001 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.500.8132 http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.500.8132 http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766128042574348288 |