B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United
The rarity of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical estimates of extreme wind speed return levels will be unreliable. Here climatology models derived from extreme value theory are estimated using data from the best-track [Hurricane Database (HURDAT)] record. The occurrence of a hurricane...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.494.8419 2023-05-15T17:34:10+02:00 B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United Thomas H. Jagger James B. Elsner The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.494.8419 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2006.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.494.8419 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2006.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2006.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T08:42:56Z The rarity of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical estimates of extreme wind speed return levels will be unreliable. Here climatology models derived from extreme value theory are estimated using data from the best-track [Hurricane Database (HURDAT)] record. The occurrence of a hurricane above a specified threshold intensity level is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution, and the distribution of the maximum wind is assumed to follow a generalized Pareto distribution. The likelihood function is the product of the generalized Pareto probabilities for each wind speed estimate. A geographic region encom-passing the entire U.S. coast vulnerable to Atlantic hurricanes is of primary interest, but the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the East Coast regions are also considered. Model parameters are first estimated using a maximum likelihood (ML) procedure. Results estimate the 100-yr return level for the entire coast at 157 kt (10 kt), but at 117 kt (4 kt) for the East Coast region (1 kt 0.514 m s1). Highest wind speed return levels are noted along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Alabama. The study also examines how the extreme wind return levels change depending on climate conditions including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and global temperature. The mean 5-yr return level during La Niña (El Niño) conditions is 125 (116) kt, but is 140 (164) kt for the 100-yr return Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown Alabama |
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The rarity of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical estimates of extreme wind speed return levels will be unreliable. Here climatology models derived from extreme value theory are estimated using data from the best-track [Hurricane Database (HURDAT)] record. The occurrence of a hurricane above a specified threshold intensity level is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution, and the distribution of the maximum wind is assumed to follow a generalized Pareto distribution. The likelihood function is the product of the generalized Pareto probabilities for each wind speed estimate. A geographic region encom-passing the entire U.S. coast vulnerable to Atlantic hurricanes is of primary interest, but the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the East Coast regions are also considered. Model parameters are first estimated using a maximum likelihood (ML) procedure. Results estimate the 100-yr return level for the entire coast at 157 kt (10 kt), but at 117 kt (4 kt) for the East Coast region (1 kt 0.514 m s1). Highest wind speed return levels are noted along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Alabama. The study also examines how the extreme wind return levels change depending on climate conditions including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and global temperature. The mean 5-yr return level during La Niña (El Niño) conditions is 125 (116) kt, but is 140 (164) kt for the 100-yr return |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
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Text |
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Thomas H. Jagger James B. Elsner |
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Thomas H. Jagger James B. Elsner B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United |
author_facet |
Thomas H. Jagger James B. Elsner |
author_sort |
Thomas H. Jagger |
title |
B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United |
title_short |
B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United |
title_full |
B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United |
title_fullStr |
B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United |
title_full_unstemmed |
B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United |
title_sort |
b.: climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the united |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.494.8419 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2006.pdf |
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Alabama |
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Alabama |
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North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2006.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.494.8419 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2006.pdf |
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