q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling
A hierarchical Bayesian strategy for modeling annual U.S. hurricane counts from the period 1851–2000 is illustrated. The approach is based on a separation of the reliable twentieth-century records from the less precise nineteenth-century records and makes use of Poisson regression. The work extends...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.488.9104 2023-05-15T17:34:06+02:00 q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2003 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.9104 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2004.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.9104 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2004.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2004.pdf text 2003 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T08:21:13Z A hierarchical Bayesian strategy for modeling annual U.S. hurricane counts from the period 1851–2000 is illustrated. The approach is based on a separation of the reliable twentieth-century records from the less precise nineteenth-century records and makes use of Poisson regression. The work extends a recent climatological analysis of U.S. hurricanes by including predictors (covariates) in the form of indices for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Model integration is achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A Bayesian strategy that uses only hurricane counts from the twentieth century together with noninformative priors compares favorably to a traditional (frequentist) approach and confirms a statistical relationship between climate patterns and coastal hurricane activity. Coinciding La Niña and negative NAO conditions significantly increase the probability of a U.S. hurricane. Hurricane counts from the nineteenth century are bootstrapped to obtain informative priors on the model parameters. The earlier records, though less reliable, allow for a more precise description of U.S. hurricane activity. This translates to a greater certainty in the authors ’ belief about the effects of ENSO and NAO on coastal hurricane activity. Similar conclusions are drawn when annual U.S. hurricane counts are disaggregated into regional counts. Contingent on the availability of values for the covariates, the models can be used to make predictive inferences about the hurricane season. 1. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown |
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A hierarchical Bayesian strategy for modeling annual U.S. hurricane counts from the period 1851–2000 is illustrated. The approach is based on a separation of the reliable twentieth-century records from the less precise nineteenth-century records and makes use of Poisson regression. The work extends a recent climatological analysis of U.S. hurricanes by including predictors (covariates) in the form of indices for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Model integration is achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A Bayesian strategy that uses only hurricane counts from the twentieth century together with noninformative priors compares favorably to a traditional (frequentist) approach and confirms a statistical relationship between climate patterns and coastal hurricane activity. Coinciding La Niña and negative NAO conditions significantly increase the probability of a U.S. hurricane. Hurricane counts from the nineteenth century are bootstrapped to obtain informative priors on the model parameters. The earlier records, though less reliable, allow for a more precise description of U.S. hurricane activity. This translates to a greater certainty in the authors ’ belief about the effects of ENSO and NAO on coastal hurricane activity. Similar conclusions are drawn when annual U.S. hurricane counts are disaggregated into regional counts. Contingent on the availability of values for the covariates, the models can be used to make predictive inferences about the hurricane season. 1. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger |
spellingShingle |
James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling |
author_facet |
James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger |
author_sort |
James B. Elsner |
title |
q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling |
title_short |
q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling |
title_full |
q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling |
title_fullStr |
q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
q 2004 American Meteorological Society A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling |
title_sort |
q 2004 american meteorological society a hierarchical bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.9104 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2004.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2004.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.9104 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2004.pdf |
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