Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season
Advances in hurricane climate science allow forecasts of seasonal landfall activity to be made. The authors begin with a review of the forecast methods available in the literature. They then reformulate the methods using a Bayesian probabilistic approach. This allows a direct comparison to be made w...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.488.7752 2023-05-15T17:33:05+02:00 Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2005 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.7752 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.7752 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006.pdf text 2005 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T08:20:43Z Advances in hurricane climate science allow forecasts of seasonal landfall activity to be made. The authors begin with a review of the forecast methods available in the literature. They then reformulate the methods using a Bayesian probabilistic approach. This allows a direct comparison to be made while focusing on a single hindcast of the 2004 season over Florida. The models, including climatology, are estimated using Gibbs sampling. Diagnostic checks verify convergence and efficient mixing of the samples from each of the models. A below average sea level pressure gradient over the eastern North Atlantic Ocean during May and June in combination with an above average tropospheric-averaged wind index associated, in part, with a strengthening of the Bermuda high pressure during July resulted in an above average probability of at least one Florida hurricane. The relatively high hindcast probabilities for 2004 were in marked contrast to the most recent 50-yr empirical probabilities for Florida, but fell short in anticipating the unprecedented level of activity that ensued. Similar results are obtained from hindcasts of total U.S. hurricane activity for 2004. 1. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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English |
description |
Advances in hurricane climate science allow forecasts of seasonal landfall activity to be made. The authors begin with a review of the forecast methods available in the literature. They then reformulate the methods using a Bayesian probabilistic approach. This allows a direct comparison to be made while focusing on a single hindcast of the 2004 season over Florida. The models, including climatology, are estimated using Gibbs sampling. Diagnostic checks verify convergence and efficient mixing of the samples from each of the models. A below average sea level pressure gradient over the eastern North Atlantic Ocean during May and June in combination with an above average tropospheric-averaged wind index associated, in part, with a strengthening of the Bermuda high pressure during July resulted in an above average probability of at least one Florida hurricane. The relatively high hindcast probabilities for 2004 were in marked contrast to the most recent 50-yr empirical probabilities for Florida, but fell short in anticipating the unprecedented level of activity that ensued. Similar results are obtained from hindcasts of total U.S. hurricane activity for 2004. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger |
spellingShingle |
James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season |
author_facet |
James B. Elsner Thomas H. Jagger |
author_sort |
James B. Elsner |
title |
Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season |
title_short |
Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season |
title_full |
Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season |
title_fullStr |
Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season |
title_sort |
comparison of hindcasts anticipating the 2004 florida hurricane season |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.7752 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.488.7752 http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766131467865292800 |