A proposal for a goodness-of-fit test to the ArnasonSchwarz multisite capture-recapture model

• Main Authors: Roger Pradel, Claire M. A. Wintrebert, Olivier Gimenez
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2003
• Subjects: Key words; Canada goose; Cormack-Jolly-Seber; Memory model; Mixture of multinomials; Multistate models; Peeling-pooling; Test3G; TestM; TestWBWA; Unisite models; Canada; Canada Goose
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.475.4469; http://www.creem.st-and.ac.uk/olivier/Pradeletal2003Biometrics.pdf

Summary. In an analysis of capture-recapture data, the identification of a model that fits is a critical step. For the multisite (also called multistate) models used to analyze data gathered at several sites, no reliable test for assessing fit is currently available. We propose a test for the JMV model, a simple generalization of the Arnason-Schwarz (AS) model, in the form of interpretable contingency tables. For the AS model, we suggest complementing the test for the JMV model with a likelihood ratio test of AS vs. JMV. The examination of an example leads us to propose further a partitioning that emphasizes the role of the memory model of Brownie et al. (1993 Biometrics 49, 1173–1187) as a biologically more plausible alternative to the AS model.