and biologically complex ecosystem: A new perspective

• Main Authors: Lorenzo Ciannelli B, Nicholas A. Bond C, Andrea Belgrano D, Nils Chr Stenseth B
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Theragra chalcogramma; Complex systems; Recruitment prediction; Forecasting; Gulf of Alaska Contents; Gulf of Alaska; Alaska
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.472.5855; http://kevinmbailey.com/uploads/3/0/5/8/3058136/bailey-pio2005.pdf

Oceanography0079-6611/ $- see front matter. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is a commercially important marine fish in the Gulf of Alaska that has provided a natural experimental system to study many features of the recruitment process. We review recruitment of pollock in the Gulf of Alaska in the conceptual framework of a complex system. In this perspective, high frequency, or activating, events during egg and larval life introduce variability to the dynamics of the population, whereas lower frequency constraining processes tend to promote broader patterns. This view is supported by both simple population and complex statistical models that capture the trends and general patterns in the time series of recruitment. Conse-quences of this view of recruitment are discussed in terms of forecasting strategies.