Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North
[1] Interannual variability in winter storminess over the North Atlantic and Europe causes significant risk and uncertainty. Attempts to seasonally predict winter storminess levels have identified little skill to date. However, recent statistical studies of observational data indicate the presence o...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2003
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.470.855 http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf |
id |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.470.855 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.470.855 2023-05-15T17:26:45+02:00 Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Budong Qian Mark A. Saunders The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2003 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.470.855 http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.470.855 http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics General circulation 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics Climatology (1620 4215 Oceanography text 2003 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T07:16:48Z [1] Interannual variability in winter storminess over the North Atlantic and Europe causes significant risk and uncertainty. Attempts to seasonally predict winter storminess levels have identified little skill to date. However, recent statistical studies of observational data indicate the presence of marginal but useful skill in predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This predictability arises from a significant (p < 0.01) link between northern hemisphere summer snow extent and the coming winter NAO state. We apply this link to assess the seasonal predictability in winter storminess 1972/3–2000/1 at a given point. The correlation skill for predicting, by early September, the numbers of winter gale days and storm force days in the main North Atlantic winter storm track region is between 0.5 and 0.6. Our finding suggests the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter storminess may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously. INDEX TERMS: 3319 Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics General circulation 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics Climatology (1620 4215 Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics General circulation 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics Climatology (1620 4215 Oceanography Budong Qian Mark A. Saunders Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics General circulation 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics Climatology (1620 4215 Oceanography |
description |
[1] Interannual variability in winter storminess over the North Atlantic and Europe causes significant risk and uncertainty. Attempts to seasonally predict winter storminess levels have identified little skill to date. However, recent statistical studies of observational data indicate the presence of marginal but useful skill in predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This predictability arises from a significant (p < 0.01) link between northern hemisphere summer snow extent and the coming winter NAO state. We apply this link to assess the seasonal predictability in winter storminess 1972/3–2000/1 at a given point. The correlation skill for predicting, by early September, the numbers of winter gale days and storm force days in the main North Atlantic winter storm track region is between 0.5 and 0.6. Our finding suggests the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter storminess may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously. INDEX TERMS: 3319 |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Budong Qian Mark A. Saunders |
author_facet |
Budong Qian Mark A. Saunders |
author_sort |
Budong Qian |
title |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North |
title_short |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North |
title_full |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North |
title_sort |
seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the north |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.470.855 http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.470.855 http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766118549550530560 |