Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual
[1] A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surfac...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.463.9154 2023-05-15T18:18:30+02:00 Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.9154 http://oceanrep.geomar.de/1549/1/27_Schmittner_2008_FutureChangesInClimateOcean_Artzeit_pubid8798.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.9154 http://oceanrep.geomar.de/1549/1/27_Schmittner_2008_FutureChangesInClimateOcean_Artzeit_pubid8798.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://oceanrep.geomar.de/1549/1/27_Schmittner_2008_FutureChangesInClimateOcean_Artzeit_pubid8798.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T06:47:30Z [1] A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72 % of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to!1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by!10!C, sea ice melts back to 10 % of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb Text Sea ice Unknown |
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English |
description |
[1] A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72 % of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to!1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by!10!C, sea ice melts back to 10 % of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
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Text |
title |
Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual |
spellingShingle |
Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual |
title_short |
Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual |
title_full |
Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual |
title_sort |
future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.9154 http://oceanrep.geomar.de/1549/1/27_Schmittner_2008_FutureChangesInClimateOcean_Artzeit_pubid8798.pdf |
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Sea ice |
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Sea ice |
op_source |
http://oceanrep.geomar.de/1549/1/27_Schmittner_2008_FutureChangesInClimateOcean_Artzeit_pubid8798.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.9154 http://oceanrep.geomar.de/1549/1/27_Schmittner_2008_FutureChangesInClimateOcean_Artzeit_pubid8798.pdf |
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