When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover?
[1] The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. We demonstrate a parametric model of ozo...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.463.5652 2023-05-15T13:50:34+02:00 When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? Sue M. Schauffler E. R. Nash The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.5652 http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/Newman2006.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.5652 http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/Newman2006.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/Newman2006.pdf doi 10.1029/2005GL025232 text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T06:46:01Z [1] The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. We demonstrate a parametric model of ozone hole area that is based upon a new algorithm for estimating chlorine and bromine levels over Antarctica and late spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This model explains 95 % of the ozone hole area’s variance. We then use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur around 2068 and the area will very slowly decline between 2001 and 2017. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until about 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on Text Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Unknown Antarctic The Antarctic |
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doi 10.1029/2005GL025232 |
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doi 10.1029/2005GL025232 Sue M. Schauffler E. R. Nash When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? |
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doi 10.1029/2005GL025232 |
description |
[1] The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. We demonstrate a parametric model of ozone hole area that is based upon a new algorithm for estimating chlorine and bromine levels over Antarctica and late spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This model explains 95 % of the ozone hole area’s variance. We then use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur around 2068 and the area will very slowly decline between 2001 and 2017. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until about 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Sue M. Schauffler E. R. Nash |
author_facet |
Sue M. Schauffler E. R. Nash |
author_sort |
Sue M. Schauffler |
title |
When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? |
title_short |
When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? |
title_full |
When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? |
title_fullStr |
When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? |
title_full_unstemmed |
When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? |
title_sort |
when will the antarctic ozone hole recover? |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.5652 http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/Newman2006.pdf |
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Antarctic The Antarctic |
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Antarctic The Antarctic |
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Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
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Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
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http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/Newman2006.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.463.5652 http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/Newman2006.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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