The Arctic amplification debate
Abstract. Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of green-house gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warm-ing, but a...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.455.7080 2023-05-15T14:34:28+02:00 The Arctic amplification debate Mark C. Serreze Jennifer A. Francis The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.455.7080 en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.455.7080 Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. https://courses.eas.ualberta.ca/eas570/arctic_amplification.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T06:10:44Z Abstract. Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of green-house gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warm-ing, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), rather than to the doubled-CO2 or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs. 1. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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description |
Abstract. Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of green-house gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warm-ing, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), rather than to the doubled-CO2 or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs. 1. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Mark C. Serreze Jennifer A. Francis |
spellingShingle |
Mark C. Serreze Jennifer A. Francis The Arctic amplification debate |
author_facet |
Mark C. Serreze Jennifer A. Francis |
author_sort |
Mark C. Serreze |
title |
The Arctic amplification debate |
title_short |
The Arctic amplification debate |
title_full |
The Arctic amplification debate |
title_fullStr |
The Arctic amplification debate |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Arctic amplification debate |
title_sort |
arctic amplification debate |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.455.7080 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
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Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
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https://courses.eas.ualberta.ca/eas570/arctic_amplification.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.455.7080 |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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