Coping with Extreme Events: Institutional Flocking

• Main Authors: Arthur P. J. Mol, Jan P. M. Van Tatenhove
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.430.611; http://edepot.wur.nl/2644/

Recent measurements in the North Atlantic confirm that the thermohaline circulation driving the Gulf Stream has come to a stand. Oceanographic monitoring over the last 50 years already showed that the circulation was weakening. Under the influence of the large inflow of melting water in Northern Atlantic waters during last summer, it has now virtually stopped. Consequently, the KNMI and the RIVM estimate the average temperature to decrease by 3°C in the next 15 years. Summers will become cooler, and in winter, more snow and ice are to be expected. A researcher of the RIVM states: “In some ways, the rise in temperatures we experienced in the past decades will be reversed. But it is hard to predict what the further course of climate change will be. Our models are not validated for this type of abrupt changes. ” Confronted with the recent events, experts are unable to estimate whether the circulation will re-establish itself in the near future. 45 This hypothetical newspaper article sketches the situation, which forms the starting point of our essay. The situation is characterized by a predicted cooling of the climate in the years to come, but more importantly, by fundamental uncertainties on the further development of climate change.