A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bear...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.425.7447 2023-05-15T18:17:52+02:00 A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.425.7447 en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.425.7447 Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T04:18:00Z Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears as a threatened species. We assessed these reports based on evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None of the reports referred to sources of scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine, Amstrup, Marcot, and Douglas (2007) and Hunter et al. (2007) were the most relevant to the listing decision, and we devoted our attention to them. Their forecasting procedures depended on a complex set of assumptions, including the erroneous assumption that general circulation models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions that polar bears inhabit. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming, as the authors did, that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially during the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied 15 percent of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. 10 percent. Averaging across the two papers, 46 percent of the principles were clearly contravened and 23 percent were apparently Text Sea ice Unknown |
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description |
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears as a threatened species. We assessed these reports based on evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None of the reports referred to sources of scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine, Amstrup, Marcot, and Douglas (2007) and Hunter et al. (2007) were the most relevant to the listing decision, and we devoted our attention to them. Their forecasting procedures depended on a complex set of assumptions, including the erroneous assumption that general circulation models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions that polar bears inhabit. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming, as the authors did, that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially during the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied 15 percent of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. 10 percent. Averaging across the two papers, 46 percent of the principles were clearly contravened and 23 percent were apparently |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon |
spellingShingle |
J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces |
author_facet |
J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon |
author_sort |
J. Scott Armstrong |
title |
A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces |
title_short |
A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces |
title_full |
A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces |
title_fullStr |
A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Version 80: Forthcoming in Interfaces |
title_sort |
public-policy forecasting audit version 80: forthcoming in interfaces |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.425.7447 |
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Sea ice |
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Sea ice |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.425.7447 |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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