Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History
Earth's climate history potentially can yield accurate assessment of climate sensitivity. Imprecise knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change is the biggest obstacle to accurate assessment of the fast-feedback climate sensitivity, which is the sensitivity that most immediat...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.423.6542 2023-05-15T16:40:52+02:00 Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History James E. Hansen Makiko Sato The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.6542 http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120508_ClimateSensitivity.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.6542 http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120508_ClimateSensitivity.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120508_ClimateSensitivity.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T04:11:28Z Earth's climate history potentially can yield accurate assessment of climate sensitivity. Imprecise knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change is the biggest obstacle to accurate assessment of the fast-feedback climate sensitivity, which is the sensitivity that most immediately affects humanity. Our best estimate for the fast-feedback climate sensitivity from Holocene initial conditions is 3 ± 0.5°C for 4 W/m 2 CO2 forcing (68 % probability). Slow feedbacks, including ice sheet disintegration and release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by the climate system, generally amplify total Earth system climate sensitivity. Slow feedbacks make Earth system climate sensitivity highly dependent on the initial climate state and on the magnitude and sign of the climate forcing, because of thresholds (tipping points) in the slow feedbacks. It is difficult to assess the speed at which slow feedbacks will become important in the future, because of the absence in paleoclimate history of any positive (warming) forcing rivaling the speed at which the human-caused forcing is growing. 1. Text Ice Sheet Unknown |
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Earth's climate history potentially can yield accurate assessment of climate sensitivity. Imprecise knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change is the biggest obstacle to accurate assessment of the fast-feedback climate sensitivity, which is the sensitivity that most immediately affects humanity. Our best estimate for the fast-feedback climate sensitivity from Holocene initial conditions is 3 ± 0.5°C for 4 W/m 2 CO2 forcing (68 % probability). Slow feedbacks, including ice sheet disintegration and release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by the climate system, generally amplify total Earth system climate sensitivity. Slow feedbacks make Earth system climate sensitivity highly dependent on the initial climate state and on the magnitude and sign of the climate forcing, because of thresholds (tipping points) in the slow feedbacks. It is difficult to assess the speed at which slow feedbacks will become important in the future, because of the absence in paleoclimate history of any positive (warming) forcing rivaling the speed at which the human-caused forcing is growing. 1. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
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Text |
author |
James E. Hansen Makiko Sato |
spellingShingle |
James E. Hansen Makiko Sato Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History |
author_facet |
James E. Hansen Makiko Sato |
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James E. Hansen |
title |
Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History |
title_short |
Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History |
title_full |
Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History |
title_fullStr |
Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History |
title_sort |
climate sensitivity estimated from earth's climate history |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.6542 http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120508_ClimateSensitivity.pdf |
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Ice Sheet |
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Ice Sheet |
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http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120508_ClimateSensitivity.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.6542 http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120508_ClimateSensitivity.pdf |
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