A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change

Analysts need to do a better job of characterizing climate “surprises ” — the low-probability but high-consequence scenarios — that are driving much of the international concern about climate change. Currently, most analyses rely on models or projections that assume “smooth behavior ” — i.e., the cl...

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Main Authors: Stephen H. Schneider, Starley L. Thompson, A. Taking, Surprises Account
Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2000
Subjects:
Online Access:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.2895
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf
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spelling ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.423.2895 2023-05-15T17:33:21+02:00 A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change Stephen H. Schneider Starley L. Thompson A. Taking Surprises Account The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2000 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.2895 http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.2895 http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf text 2000 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T04:10:04Z Analysts need to do a better job of characterizing climate “surprises ” — the low-probability but high-consequence scenarios — that are driving much of the international concern about climate change. Currently, most analyses rely on models or projections that assume “smooth behavior ” — i.e., the climate responds slowly and predictably, gradually warming as atmospheric GHG concentrations increase. In reality, the global climate is a complex system that could behave quite erratically. The circumstances that could drive such behavior have to do with physical characteristics of the climate system itself, as well as the rate of GHG buildup. This paper describes a climate model that is both simple enough to use in economic studies, and complex enough to explore the causes and consequences of one major type of “climate surprise ” — the collapse of the “conveyor belt ” circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean. This particular climate surprise is probably the best-understood and largest plausible effect of its kind. The model will enable researchers and policy makers to see more clearly the range of possible futures that could result from current policy choices. B. Coupling of Simple Climate and Economic Models Climate policy analysis increasingly has relied on integrated assessment Text North Atlantic Unknown
institution Open Polar
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description Analysts need to do a better job of characterizing climate “surprises ” — the low-probability but high-consequence scenarios — that are driving much of the international concern about climate change. Currently, most analyses rely on models or projections that assume “smooth behavior ” — i.e., the climate responds slowly and predictably, gradually warming as atmospheric GHG concentrations increase. In reality, the global climate is a complex system that could behave quite erratically. The circumstances that could drive such behavior have to do with physical characteristics of the climate system itself, as well as the rate of GHG buildup. This paper describes a climate model that is both simple enough to use in economic studies, and complex enough to explore the causes and consequences of one major type of “climate surprise ” — the collapse of the “conveyor belt ” circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean. This particular climate surprise is probably the best-understood and largest plausible effect of its kind. The model will enable researchers and policy makers to see more clearly the range of possible futures that could result from current policy choices. B. Coupling of Simple Climate and Economic Models Climate policy analysis increasingly has relied on integrated assessment
author2 The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
format Text
author Stephen H. Schneider
Starley L. Thompson
A. Taking
Surprises Account
spellingShingle Stephen H. Schneider
Starley L. Thompson
A. Taking
Surprises Account
A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change
author_facet Stephen H. Schneider
Starley L. Thompson
A. Taking
Surprises Account
author_sort Stephen H. Schneider
title A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change
title_short A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change
title_full A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change
title_fullStr A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change
title_full_unstemmed A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change
title_sort simple climate model used in economic studies of global change
publishDate 2000
url http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.2895
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_source http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf
op_relation http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.2895
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf
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