A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change
Analysts need to do a better job of characterizing climate “surprises ” — the low-probability but high-consequence scenarios — that are driving much of the international concern about climate change. Currently, most analyses rely on models or projections that assume “smooth behavior ” — i.e., the cl...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2000
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.423.2895 http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf |
| Summary: | Analysts need to do a better job of characterizing climate “surprises ” — the low-probability but high-consequence scenarios — that are driving much of the international concern about climate change. Currently, most analyses rely on models or projections that assume “smooth behavior ” — i.e., the climate responds slowly and predictably, gradually warming as atmospheric GHG concentrations increase. In reality, the global climate is a complex system that could behave quite erratically. The circumstances that could drive such behavior have to do with physical characteristics of the climate system itself, as well as the rate of GHG buildup. This paper describes a climate model that is both simple enough to use in economic studies, and complex enough to explore the causes and consequences of one major type of “climate surprise ” — the collapse of the “conveyor belt ” circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean. This particular climate surprise is probably the best-understood and largest plausible effect of its kind. The model will enable researchers and policy makers to see more clearly the range of possible futures that could result from current policy choices. B. Coupling of Simple Climate and Economic Models Climate policy analysis increasingly has relied on integrated assessment |
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