Impacts of Atmospheric Temperature Trends on Tropical Cyclone Activity 3 4 5 Submitted to Journal of Climate 6 7 8 9

• Main Authors: Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephan Fueglistaler, Isaac M. Held, Thomas R. Knutson, Ming Zhao
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.420.508; http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/Vecchi_JClim_2013.pdf

Impacts of tropical temperature changes in the upper troposphere (UT) and the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity are explored. UT and lower TTL cooling both lead to an overall increase in potential intensity (PI), while temperatures 70hPa and higher have negligible effect. Idealized experiments with a highresolution global model show that lower temperatures in the UT are associated with increases in global and North Atlantic TC frequency, but modeled TC frequency changes are not significantly affected by TTL temperature changes nor do they scale directly with PI.