WATER RESOURCES IN EXTREME-0- MAY Ammclur WATW RESOURCES &mamm ~ 30~0 ',I.

• Main Authors: J. A. Knudson, L. D. Hinsnan
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Arctic; Fairbanks; Aska; Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed; permafrost; Subarctic; Alaska
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.420.2732; http://www.lter.uaf.edu/pdf/1044_knudson_hinzman_2000.pdf

ABSTRACT: Prediction of streamflow in subarctic regions can be challenging due to the host of unigus. factors present. Discontinuous permafrost, extensive aukis, and fluctuating active layas arejust several of the-Lbs contended with in this region. Ln addition, reliable historical data is non-existent for mwh of interim ~aska, w b limiting the strength of hydrologic models even in relatively uniform conditions. Our long-term gaal is t o m hydrologic forecasting in a variety of basims by compensating for the aforementioned variability and limitatims. nis particular project serves to confirm the effectiveness of the Swedish HBV-3 model in this endeavor, with the in-tirn,f additional factors as needed. The HBV model was chosen due to its previously demonstrated success in ~ edi&~ streamflow in arctic and subarctic conditions, as well as its simplicity and ability to accurately foreast in the event oflimited historical data. For our analyses, the model was used to predict streamflow within the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed (CFCRW), located in interior Alaska, northeast of Fairbanks. The watershed provided an excellent oppwhmity to test the model under highly variable conditions, including those mentioned above, that are typical of the region. The model proved to adequately simulate streamflow, which will allow us to determine more about the influence of discontinuous permafrost on hydrologic processes, including losses to groundwater and differences in soil moisture reservoirs. This success supports the wntinued use of the HBV-3 model as a viable tool for hydrologic modeling within the Caribou-Poker Cr& research watershed, as well as strengthening previous evidence for its potential use throughout the subarctic as a viable means of short-term hydrologic forecasting. KEY TERMS: streamflow prediction, hydrologic modeling, HBV-3, discontinuous permafrost.