THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON RECRUITMENT TO THE ICELANDIC COD STOCK
The economy of Iceland depends heavily on the fishing industry, which provides more than 60 % of export earnings and employs 8 % of the work force. The economy, therefore, remains sensitive to declining fish stocks. In the mid-1980s, a complete collapse of the Icelandic cod stock appeared imminent a...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2005
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.418.850 http://publications.nr.no/4075/Mazzi_-_The_influence_of_climatic_conditions_of_the_North.pdf |
| Summary: | The economy of Iceland depends heavily on the fishing industry, which provides more than 60 % of export earnings and employs 8 % of the work force. The economy, therefore, remains sensitive to declining fish stocks. In the mid-1980s, a complete collapse of the Icelandic cod stock appeared imminent and it has remained at historically low levels since. During the last three decades, the weather conditions off the coast of Iceland have been changing. It is difficult, if not impossible to enumerate all the factors that influence the bio-equilibrium of the North Atlantic waters. Nevertheless, it is known that the climate has some considerable influence in the behavior of cod stocks. In this study, the focus is on trying to assess the relative importance of the external oceanic climate to other factors that have an impact on cod stocks. Weather covariates from the North-Atlantic air pressure field are derived. These seem to give additional information to that provided by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index. A state space model for recruitment to the cod stock, which takes into account these climate related covariates, as well as other factors, is proposed and tested using available data. Results indicate that, although the ocean climate has a significant effect on cod recruitment, it is possible, through adequate management of fisheries, drive cod stocks to more sustainable levels. 1 |
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