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This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data as initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, consisting of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the ocean mo...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.418.1790 2023-05-15T17:30:38+02:00 Exeter Holger Pohlmann Johann Jungclaus Jochem Marotzke Ex Pb The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2008 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.418.1790 http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/08S1_MaxPlanckInstitute_DecadalPredictability.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.418.1790 http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/08S1_MaxPlanckInstitute_DecadalPredictability.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/08S1_MaxPlanckInstitute_DecadalPredictability.pdf text 2008 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T03:47:23Z This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data as initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, consisting of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the ocean model MPI-OM, is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly-coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. The coupled model is thus continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952-2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show improved predictive skill through the initialization on the decadal time scale for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), global mean SST, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. An ensemble of forecast experiments is performed subsequently over the period 2002-2011. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observation until the year 2007 and is higher than simulated without the oceanic initialization, averaged over the forecast period. Our results confirm that in decadal climate predictions, both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for. Pohlmann-et-al_paper_hindcast_07_03_hp Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data as initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, consisting of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the ocean model MPI-OM, is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly-coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. The coupled model is thus continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952-2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show improved predictive skill through the initialization on the decadal time scale for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), global mean SST, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. An ensemble of forecast experiments is performed subsequently over the period 2002-2011. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observation until the year 2007 and is higher than simulated without the oceanic initialization, averaged over the forecast period. Our results confirm that in decadal climate predictions, both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for. Pohlmann-et-al_paper_hindcast_07_03_hp |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
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Holger Pohlmann Johann Jungclaus Jochem Marotzke Ex Pb |
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Holger Pohlmann Johann Jungclaus Jochem Marotzke Ex Pb Exeter |
author_facet |
Holger Pohlmann Johann Jungclaus Jochem Marotzke Ex Pb |
author_sort |
Holger Pohlmann |
title |
Exeter |
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Exeter |
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Exeter |
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Exeter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exeter |
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exeter |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.418.1790 http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/08S1_MaxPlanckInstitute_DecadalPredictability.pdf |
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North Atlantic |
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North Atlantic |
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http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/08S1_MaxPlanckInstitute_DecadalPredictability.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.418.1790 http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/08S1_MaxPlanckInstitute_DecadalPredictability.pdf |
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