1 2 Attribution of Cyclogenesis Region Sea Surface Temperature Change to Anthropogenic Influence

• Main Authors: N. P. Gillett, P. A. Stott, B. D. Santer
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.409.4812; http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/PapersIDAGsubtask2.2/Gillett_SSTchange.pdf

Previous research has identified links between tropical cyclone activity and sea surface temperatures in the tropical cyclogenesis regions of the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific. Other work has demonstrated that warming in these regions is inconsistent with simulated internal variability. After evaluating the variability of a suite of climate models on a range of timescales, we use detection and attribution methods and a suite of 20th century simulations including anthropogenic and natural forcing to identify a significant response to external forcing in both regions during the June–November hurricane season over the 20th century. We then use separate simulations of the response to natural and anthropogenic forcing to identify anthropogenic influence independently of natural influence in both the Atlantic and Pacific Cyclogenesis Regions.