E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over
We present an integrated modeling study designed to investigate changes in ecosystem level phenology over Europe associated with changes in climate pattern, by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We derived onset dates from processed NDVI data sets and used growing degree day (GDD) summations from...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.408.1881 2023-05-15T17:28:31+02:00 E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over Benjamin I. Cook Thomas M. Smith Michael E. Mann The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1881 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Cooketal-GCB05.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1881 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Cooketal-GCB05.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Cooketal-GCB05.pdf climate change ecosystem/climate interactions North Atlantic Oscillation phenology modeling text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T03:09:01Z We present an integrated modeling study designed to investigate changes in ecosystem level phenology over Europe associated with changes in climate pattern, by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We derived onset dates from processed NDVI data sets and used growing degree day (GDD) summations from the NCEP re-analysis to calibrate and validate a phenology model to predict the onset of the growing season over Europe. In a cross-validation hindcast, the model (PHENOM) is able to explain 63 % of the variance in onset date for grid cells containing at least 50 % mixed and boreal forest. Using a model developed from previous work we performed climate change scenarios, generating synthetic temperature and GDD distributions under a hypothetically increasing NAO. These new distributions were used to drive PHENOM and project changes in the timing of onset for forested cells over Europe. Results from the climate change scenarios indicate that, if the current trend in the NAO continues, there is the potential for a continued advance to the start of the growing season by as much as 13 days in some areas. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown |
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language |
English |
topic |
climate change ecosystem/climate interactions North Atlantic Oscillation phenology modeling |
spellingShingle |
climate change ecosystem/climate interactions North Atlantic Oscillation phenology modeling Benjamin I. Cook Thomas M. Smith Michael E. Mann E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over |
topic_facet |
climate change ecosystem/climate interactions North Atlantic Oscillation phenology modeling |
description |
We present an integrated modeling study designed to investigate changes in ecosystem level phenology over Europe associated with changes in climate pattern, by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We derived onset dates from processed NDVI data sets and used growing degree day (GDD) summations from the NCEP re-analysis to calibrate and validate a phenology model to predict the onset of the growing season over Europe. In a cross-validation hindcast, the model (PHENOM) is able to explain 63 % of the variance in onset date for grid cells containing at least 50 % mixed and boreal forest. Using a model developed from previous work we performed climate change scenarios, generating synthetic temperature and GDD distributions under a hypothetically increasing NAO. These new distributions were used to drive PHENOM and project changes in the timing of onset for forested cells over Europe. Results from the climate change scenarios indicate that, if the current trend in the NAO continues, there is the potential for a continued advance to the start of the growing season by as much as 13 days in some areas. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Benjamin I. Cook Thomas M. Smith Michael E. Mann |
author_facet |
Benjamin I. Cook Thomas M. Smith Michael E. Mann |
author_sort |
Benjamin I. Cook |
title |
E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over |
title_short |
E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over |
title_full |
E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over |
title_fullStr |
E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over |
title_full_unstemmed |
E.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over |
title_sort |
e.: the north atlantic oscillation and regional phenology prediction over |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1881 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Cooketal-GCB05.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Cooketal-GCB05.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1881 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Cooketal-GCB05.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766121252689281024 |