1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5
We analyzed annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts from 1871-2004, considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (Aug-Oct or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (‘MDR’: 6-18 o N, 20-60 o W), and the North Atlant...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.408.1562 2023-05-15T17:29:30+02:00 1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5 Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1562 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/TC-JGR07InPressFinal.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1562 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/TC-JGR07InPressFinal.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/TC-JGR07InPressFinal.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T03:08:53Z We analyzed annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts from 1871-2004, considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (Aug-Oct or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (‘MDR’: 6-18 o N, 20-60 o W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted m=15±4 total named storms for the 2007 season. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown |
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English |
description |
We analyzed annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts from 1871-2004, considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (Aug-Oct or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (‘MDR’: 6-18 o N, 20-60 o W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted m=15±4 total named storms for the 2007 season. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann |
spellingShingle |
Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann 1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5 |
author_facet |
Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann |
author_sort |
Thomas A. Sabbatelli |
title |
1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5 |
title_short |
1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5 |
title_full |
1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5 |
title_fullStr |
1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
1 2 The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates 3 4 5 |
title_sort |
1 2 the influence of climate state variables on atlantic tropical cyclone occurrence rates 3 4 5 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1562 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/TC-JGR07InPressFinal.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/TC-JGR07InPressFinal.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1562 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/TC-JGR07InPressFinal.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766123630436024320 |