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considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.408.1547 2023-05-15T17:32:47+02:00 Click Here for Full Article Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1547 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1547 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T03:08:53Z considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season. Citation: Sabbatelli, T. A., and M. E. Mann (2007), The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385. 1. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown |
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considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season. Citation: Sabbatelli, T. A., and M. E. Mann (2007), The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385. 1. |
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Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann |
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Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann |
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Thomas A. Sabbatelli |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1547 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07.pdf |
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North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.1547 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07.pdf |
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