Timing of abrupt climate changes: A precise clock, Geophys

• Main Author: Stefan Rahmstorf
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Theoretical modeling; 1635 Global Change; Oceans (4203; Greenland; ice core
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.405.6172; http://pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_grl_2003.pdf

[1] Many paleoclimatic data reveal a 1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is. An analysis of the GISP2 ice core record from Greenland reveals that abrupt climate events appear to be paced by a 1,470-year cycle with a period that is probably stable to within a few percent; with 95% confidence the period is maintained to better than 12 % over at least 23 cycles. This highly precise clock points to an origin outside the Earth system; oscillatory modes within the Earth system can be expected to be far more irregular in