Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its
The vector motion of severe tropical cyclones (including storm, hurricane/typhoon stages) is forecasted by a numerical scheme which involves two steps: a. Numerical gcostrophic steering of the center of the cyclone using the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Facility’s (FN W F) operationally produce...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.395.2837 2023-05-15T17:35:37+02:00 Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its Robert J. Renard The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 1968 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.395.2837 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-07-0453.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.395.2837 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-07-0453.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-07-0453.pdf text 1968 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T02:26:44Z The vector motion of severe tropical cyclones (including storm, hurricane/typhoon stages) is forecasted by a numerical scheme which involves two steps: a. Numerical gcostrophic steering of the center of the cyclone using the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Facility’s (FN W F) operationally produced smoothed isobaric height fields, called SR. The tropical perturbations arc steered in I-hr. time steps up to 72 hr., using winds derivcd from the SR analysis dated closest to warning time. SR 500 mb. in thc Pacific and SR 700 mb. in the Atlantic gave the most accurate forccasts on tests of 10 northwest Pacific typhoons and all fivc north Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes in the period Aug. 15-Nov. 1, 1965. Forecasts were made twice daily, 0600 and 1800 GMT, during this period using the best track information. b. Next, the numerical-stcering prediction is objectively modified to adjust for bias (Le., deficiency in both zonal and meridional motion) by utilizing errors made in the most recent 12- and 24-hr. numerical-steering forecasts. Scveral modes of adjustment are employed; the most recent 12- (12- and 34-) hr. numerical-steering bias yields the most accurate correction of subsequent Atlant.ic (Pacific) forccasts out to pcriods of 72 hr. The optimal Naval Postgraduate School (NPGS) technique produces forecast errors ranging from an average of 4.2 kt. for 12-hr. forecasts to 6.2 kt. for 72-hr. forecasts. The U.S. Navy’s official forecast accuracy is excclled by the NPGS scheme for all time periods. Stratification of error statistics by area, trajectory, and stage of storm, intercomparison with ESSA’s NHC-64 tcchnique, discussion of merits and dcficicncies of the research program relative to operational forecasts, and current experiments at FN WF are discussed. 1. Text North Atlantic Unknown Pacific |
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The vector motion of severe tropical cyclones (including storm, hurricane/typhoon stages) is forecasted by a numerical scheme which involves two steps: a. Numerical gcostrophic steering of the center of the cyclone using the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Facility’s (FN W F) operationally produced smoothed isobaric height fields, called SR. The tropical perturbations arc steered in I-hr. time steps up to 72 hr., using winds derivcd from the SR analysis dated closest to warning time. SR 500 mb. in thc Pacific and SR 700 mb. in the Atlantic gave the most accurate forccasts on tests of 10 northwest Pacific typhoons and all fivc north Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes in the period Aug. 15-Nov. 1, 1965. Forecasts were made twice daily, 0600 and 1800 GMT, during this period using the best track information. b. Next, the numerical-stcering prediction is objectively modified to adjust for bias (Le., deficiency in both zonal and meridional motion) by utilizing errors made in the most recent 12- and 24-hr. numerical-steering forecasts. Scveral modes of adjustment are employed; the most recent 12- (12- and 34-) hr. numerical-steering bias yields the most accurate correction of subsequent Atlant.ic (Pacific) forccasts out to pcriods of 72 hr. The optimal Naval Postgraduate School (NPGS) technique produces forecast errors ranging from an average of 4.2 kt. for 12-hr. forecasts to 6.2 kt. for 72-hr. forecasts. The U.S. Navy’s official forecast accuracy is excclled by the NPGS scheme for all time periods. Stratification of error statistics by area, trajectory, and stage of storm, intercomparison with ESSA’s NHC-64 tcchnique, discussion of merits and dcficicncies of the research program relative to operational forecasts, and current experiments at FN WF are discussed. 1. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
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author |
Robert J. Renard |
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Robert J. Renard Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its |
author_facet |
Robert J. Renard |
author_sort |
Robert J. Renard |
title |
Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its |
title_short |
Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its |
title_full |
Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the Motions of Tropical Cyclones Using a Numerically Derived Steering Current and Its |
title_sort |
forecasting the motions of tropical cyclones using a numerically derived steering current and its |
publishDate |
1968 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.395.2837 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-07-0453.pdf |
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Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
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North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-07-0453.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.395.2837 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-07-0453.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766134839467048960 |