740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April
A method to predict the June–September (JJAS) Caribbean sea level pressure anomalies (SLPAs) using data available the previous April is described. The method involves the creation of a multiple linear regression equation that uses three predictors. These predictors are the January–March (JFM) North...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.392.7089 2023-05-15T17:33:06+02:00 740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April John A. Knaff The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 1997 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.392.7089 http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/knaff1998.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.392.7089 http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/knaff1998.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/knaff1998.pdf text 1997 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T02:19:48Z A method to predict the June–September (JJAS) Caribbean sea level pressure anomalies (SLPAs) using data available the previous April is described. The method involves the creation of a multiple linear regression equation that uses three predictors. These predictors are the January–March (JFM) North Atlantic (50�–60�N, 10�–50�W) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), JFM Niño 3.4 (5�N–5�S, 120�–170�W) SSTAs, and the strength of the eastern Atlantic subtropical pressure ridge measured in March between 20 � and 30�W. The physical role of each of the predictors in determining the variations of Caribbean SLPAs is discussed. The forecast equation is developed using a training dataset covering the period 1950–95 (46 yr) and is tested upon independent data covering the period 1903–49 where the data availability permits (42 yr). Results suggest that skillful forecasts are possible. The method reduced the interannual variance of the JJAS Caribbean SLPAs by 50 % in the developmental dataset and by 40 % in the independent dataset. Separate forecasts for the June–July and August–September SLPAs are also developed, tested, and discussed. 1. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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English |
description |
A method to predict the June–September (JJAS) Caribbean sea level pressure anomalies (SLPAs) using data available the previous April is described. The method involves the creation of a multiple linear regression equation that uses three predictors. These predictors are the January–March (JFM) North Atlantic (50�–60�N, 10�–50�W) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), JFM Niño 3.4 (5�N–5�S, 120�–170�W) SSTAs, and the strength of the eastern Atlantic subtropical pressure ridge measured in March between 20 � and 30�W. The physical role of each of the predictors in determining the variations of Caribbean SLPAs is discussed. The forecast equation is developed using a training dataset covering the period 1950–95 (46 yr) and is tested upon independent data covering the period 1903–49 where the data availability permits (42 yr). Results suggest that skillful forecasts are possible. The method reduced the interannual variance of the JJAS Caribbean SLPAs by 50 % in the developmental dataset and by 40 % in the independent dataset. Separate forecasts for the June–July and August–September SLPAs are also developed, tested, and discussed. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
John A. Knaff |
spellingShingle |
John A. Knaff 740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April |
author_facet |
John A. Knaff |
author_sort |
John A. Knaff |
title |
740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April |
title_short |
740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April |
title_full |
740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April |
title_fullStr |
740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April |
title_full_unstemmed |
740 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April |
title_sort |
740 weather and forecasting volume 13 predicting summertime caribbean pressure in early april |
publishDate |
1997 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.392.7089 http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/knaff1998.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/knaff1998.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.392.7089 http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/knaff1998.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766131495802503168 |