Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Q European Geophysical Society 1994

• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1993
• Subjects: North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.382.1514; http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/30/17/18/PDF/npg-1-41-1994.pdf

Abstract. A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme-local approximation in a reconstructed phase space-for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20°N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve-month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENS0 and the North Atlantic Oscillation. 1