1994 – A TROUBLING LACK OF CONCORDANCE PAPER #2

• Main Authors: W. R. Webber, P. R. Higbie, C. W. Webber
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Greenland; ice core
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.380.4757; http://www.leif.org/EOS/1004-2675.pdf

We have compared the yearly production rates of 10 Be by cosmic rays in the Earths polar atmosphere over the last 50-70 years with 10 Be measurements from two separate ice cores in Greenland. These ice cores provide measurements of the annual 10 Be concentration and 10 Be flux levels during this time. The scatter in the ice core yearly data vs. the production data is larger than the average solar 11 year production variations that are being measured. The cross correlation coefficients between the yearly 10 Be production and the ice core 10 Be measurements for this time period are <0.4 in all comparisons between ice core data and 10 Be production, including 10 Be concentrations, 10 Be fluxes and in comparing the two separate ice core measurements. In fact, the cross correlation between the two ice core measurements, which should be measuring the same source, is the lowest of all, only ~0.2. These values for the correlation coefficient are all indicative of a “poor ” correlation. The regression line slopes for the best fit lines between the 10 Be production and the 10 Be measurements used in the cross correlation analysis are all in the range 0.4-0.6. This is a particular problem for historical projections of solar activity based on ice core measurements which assume a 1:1 correspondence.